The governed demonstration

One question, answered all the way down.

A worked demonstration on synthetic group data. Every figure below carries its certified metric, the objects it was read from, when it was last verified, and what it cannot tell you.

The group position

Synthetic group KPIs

Synthetic actual versus plan.

S$86.4M

▲ 8.2% vs prior year

12.8%

▼ 0.9 pts vs plan

S$11.2M

18.4 weeks coverage

82%

▲ 4 pts vs prior quarter

3.4%

▼ 0.6 pts improvement

91%

7 issues need ownership

Ranked by impact

What needs a decision this week.

Each item carries a quantified exposure and an accountable owner. The ranking is the model’s; the decision is not.

01Protect imported-product marginMYR and freight exposure could reduce next-quarter gross margin by a synthetic S$310K.Today

02Fix stockouts in five high-volume outletsEstimated synthetic lost sales of S$47K over seven days.48h

03Review two renewal locationsProjected occupancy costs exceed the approved 16% threshold.7 days

04Scale successful loyalty offerHoldout analysis indicates positive incremental contribution, not only discounted demand.Opportunity

Every answer shows its work

From warehouse object to stated limitation.

Sourcefact_shipmentGold layer, read-only. Joined on shipment id.

CertifiedM-171One definition, approved and versioned, group-wide.

MeasuredWhat moved the resultLane concentration is measured. The carrier capacity explanation remains an inference and is not yet confirmed.

InferredCarrier capacityA plausible cause the data cannot confirm. Marked, not asserted.

LimitationStated up front1 carrier EDI feed 6 hours stale

gold.fact_shipment12,800 shipments · 06:40Safe to cite

Synthetic

Brand performance index

Synthetic actual versus plan, indexed. The grey reference bar is plan.

+4Krispy Kreme92 / 88

+3llaollao88 / 85

−6TP Tea72 / 78

−6108 Matcha68 / 74

−11Jamba52 / 63

+3Ben's Cookies65 / 62

+4Cinnabon60 / 56

Plan Actual, at or above plan Actual, below plan

Synthetic

Sales mix

Doughnuts and bakery34%Frozen yoghurt24%Tea and matcha18%Smoothies14%Cookies10%

Governed answer

Why is on-time delivery slipping?

M-171 · Certified

OTIF is 89.2%, which is 4.8 points below plan. Two lanes account for 70% of the misses.

The decline begins in week 27. SG–KL road and port drayage account for 60 of 86 late or incomplete shipments, and both worsened after carrier capacity was reallocated.

OTIF89.2%▼ 4.8 pts vs plan

COST / SHIPMENTS$212▲ 9% vs prior

FLEET UTILISATION81%▲ 2 pts vs plan

DAMAGE CLAIMS0.6%Flat vs prior

On-time in-full declines from 93.8 percent at week 18 to 89.2 percent at week 30, crossing below the 94 percent plan line at week 20.M-171 · On-time in-full · 12 weeks

Plan 94.0%

W18W24W30

Lane concentration is measured.gold.fact_shipmentMeasured
The decline begins in week 27.M-171 On-time in-fullCalculated
Carrier capacity cause: inferenceno sourceInferred

12,800 shipments matched to certified records Not used in this answer1 carrier EDI feed is 6 hours stale

Microsoft Fabric · gold.fact_shipment

Metric identity: M-171 On-time in-full, certified v3Approved 12 Jun 2026
Source: Microsoft Fabric · gold.fact_shipmentgold.fact_shipment, dim_lane, dim_carrier
Run detail: 3 tables read · 12,800 rows12,800 shipments · 28 Jul 2026 06:40
Measured vs inferred: Lane concentration is measured. The carrier capacity explanation remains an inference and is not yet confirmed.Carrier capacity cause: inference
Limitation: 1 carrier EDI feed is 6 hours staleStated before any recommendation
Governed by: Certified metric, four-eyes approvedNo answer publishes without a human approval

Microsoft Fabric
gold.fact_shipment
M-171
this answer

12,800 shipments · 28 Jul 2026 06:40 · M-171 On-time in-full, certified v3 1 carrier EDI feed is 6 hours stale

LANE	LATE
SG–KL road	38
Port drayage	22
JB cross-border	11
Inter-island	6

Governed answer

Why is gross margin below plan?

M-012 · Certified

Gross margin is 18.4%, which is 2.2 points below plan. Two product lines carry 78% of the gap.

Rebate depth on beverages explains 1.4 of the 2.2 points, and freight surcharges account for most of the remainder. Volume is on plan.

REVENUES$24.6M▲ 3.2% vs plan

GROSS MARGIN18.4%▼ 2.2 pts vs plan

REBATESS$1.9M▲ 14% vs prior

ORDER FILL RATE94.1%▼ 1.8 pts vs plan

Gross margin falls from 20.4 percent at week 18 to 18.4 percent at week 30, below the 20.6 percent plan line from week 22.M-012 · Gross margin · 12 weeks

Plan 20.6%

W18W24W30

Rebate and freight effects are measured from invoice lines.gold.fact_invoice_lineMeasured
Rebate depth on beverages explains 1.M-012 Gross marginCalculated
Competitive pricing pressure: inferenceno sourceInferred

18,400 invoice lines matched to certified records Not used in this answer1 supplier rebate file is pending

Microsoft Fabric · gold.fact_invoice_line

Metric identity: M-012 Gross margin, certified v5Approved 12 Jun 2026
Source: Microsoft Fabric · gold.fact_invoice_linegold.fact_invoice_line, dim_product, dim_supplier
Run detail: 3 tables read · 18,400 rows18,400 invoice lines · 28 Jul 2026 06:40
Measured vs inferred: Rebate and freight effects are measured from invoice lines. Competitive pricing pressure is an inference.Competitive pricing pressure: inference
Limitation: 1 supplier rebate file is pendingStated before any recommendation
Governed by: Certified metric, four-eyes approvedNo answer publishes without a human approval

Microsoft Fabric
gold.fact_invoice_line
M-012
this answer

18,400 invoice lines · 28 Jul 2026 06:40 · M-012 Gross margin, certified v5 1 supplier rebate file is pending

PRODUCT LINE	GAP
Beverages	S$310k
Frozen	S$185k
Dry goods	S$95k
Non-food	+S$72k

Data readiness

12 domains

POS and orders

Finance and banks

Inventory and recipe

Workforce

CRM and loyalty

Sites and leases

13-week outlook

Watch

Base caseLiquidity remains above S$8.5M.
Downside caseThree new openings plus weaker demand create a week-10 trough.
Management leverPhase fit-out payments and reduce slow inventory orders.

CEO rule: every red metric must have an accountable owner, quantified impact, decision deadline and tracked action.

INFOC.AI · Pinned

Saved dashboards

Saved answers re-run against the warehouse on their own schedules. Each one names an owner, a schedule and its current trust state.

Arun Nair · hourly / M-171 · 6m ago

Delivery reliability watch

89.2%

OTIF · 4.8 points below plan

Attention

Sara Menon · Mondays 07:00 / M-004 · today

Weekly CEO brief

S$86.4M

Net sales · +8.2% year on year

Healthy

Group CFO · daily 06:30 / M-208 · 16m ago

13-week cash floor

S$1.84M

Week 8 · S$340k headroom

Watch

Supply lead · weekly / M-088 · yesterday

Ingredient cost index

+11.4%

Versus prior period

Attention

Brand marketing · monthly / M-231 · 2d ago

Loyalty cohorts

38%

Month-3 retention · +4 points

Healthy

Data owner · continuous / Trust ledger

Warehouse trust

94%

Confidence · 2 sources partial

Healthy